Tuesday’s election to fill a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin has emerged as the country’s first major political battle since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. It offers both an early test of the president’s popularity in a state he narrowly flipped last year and a gauge of the political machine that Trump ally Elon Musk has deployed to drive up turnout in this swing state.
A pair of special elections for two vacant House seats in Florida have garnered considerably less attention. But the outcomes on Tuesday could deliver Republicans some much-needed reinforcements to pad Speaker Mike Johnson’s narrow majority and provide more hints into the mood of voters in a state that has lurched hard to the right over the past decade.
The results in both states could provide Republicans and Democrats with roadmaps for how to run in the second Trump era.
In Wisconsin, the race between the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, and Brad Schimel, the conservative favored by Trump and Musk, will determine the ideological balance of the high court in a perennial battleground. A Crawford win would help liberals retain a 4-3 majority on the court, while a Schimel victory would flip the court to conservatives.
In a state with divided government — Gov. Tony Evers is a Democrat, while Republicans control the state legislature — the Supreme Court has become the final arbiter of hot-button issues. Battles over the future of abortion, voting rules, the bargaining rights of public sector unions and congressional redistricting all loom over the court.
The battle for the seat has shattered records to become the most expensive judicial race in US history — with more than $90 million already plowed into advertising, canvassing and other expenses, according to a tally by the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University’s law school.
Wisconsin has proved pivotal in US politics as one of a handful of swing states that determine the presidency. The state gave Trump his narrowest margin of victory last year and is poised to serve as a crucial battleground in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential contest — with its high court potentially setting ground rules for voting in those elections.
The Trump factor and turnout
In a coup for Schimel, Trump endorsed him in the final stretch of the campaign — a move Republicans hope will help drive conservatives to the polls for an off-year judicial contest in which Trump is not on the ballot.
hroughout the campaign, Schimel — who served as the state’s attorney general between 2015 and 2019 — sought to bind himself closely to the president’s brand, even dressing as Trump for Halloween last year. Schimel weaved the president’s endorsement into his speeches in the final week on the campaign trail, and the campaign churned out ads touting his support.
The race is technically nonpartisan, but both parties are heavily invested in the contest, with some of the nation’s most recognizable political figures trekking to Wisconsin in recent weeks.
They include Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, the progressive who caucuses with Democrats in the Senate, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the Democrats’ 2024 vice presidential nominee. Former President Barack Obama, who remains a popular figure in the Democratic party, posted on social media encouraging Wisconsin voters to support Crawford as early voting was underway.
Donald Trump Jr. and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk are among the Republicans who have stumped for Schimel.
Both campaigns promoted early voting, which outpaced absentee voting in the last state Supreme Court race in 2023. The number of absentee ballots cast through Sunday jumped 57% from the same period in 2023, according to Wisconsin Elections Commission data published on Monday.
A test for Musk’s millions
Groups aligned with Musk, who spent nearly $300 million to help elect Trump and Republicans in Congress last year, have spent more than $19 million in Wisconsin, making the Tesla CEO one of the biggest outside players in the race. Musk also contributed $3 million personally to the state’s Republican Party in an effort to shape the outcome.